As we will see throughout this article, the world and Europe in the near future will have to face the challenge of demographic change. It is a phenomenon that is already a reality, yet it is not considered as important as it should be. The future will depend on it, the only decision to make is whether to turn this phenomenon into an opportunity or into a cost. Of course, reality is more complex than that last sentence suggests: it involves data, political opinions, and social factors. It is not clear which choices are the best, but the phenomenon must be addressed, because it is a certainty that it will happen.
What demographic future for Europe?
Europe’s demographic future looks complex and delicate. The elderly population is expected to grow significantly, partly due to increasing life expectancy, while the working-age population and minors will experience a heavy reduction. In all European Union countries, a demographic imbalance is evident, and although immigration plays a compensatory role, it only partially offsets the decline: foreign citizens tend to make up the majority of the young population, but not enough to reverse the overall trend.
For a long time, Europe was considered an exception on the global stage. While many predicted a “demographic bomb” elsewhere with uncontrolled growth, poverty, food shortages, and conflicts, the Old Continent seemed stable. However, in recent years, projections on world population and Europe’s demographic future have become more complex and divergent, not regarding whether the decline is inevitable, but rather its magnitude. By 2100, according to various projections, the global population could range from a maximum of 15 billion to less than half of that.
Global projections
Developed countries, now with negative natural balances, will lead the population decline, and around 2070 the entire planet will fall below the replacement rate. The speed of this process will depend mainly on demographic trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, the only continent where the population will continue to grow significantly. According to the 2019 United Nations World Population Prospects revision, Europe’s population will drop from the current 747 million to 629 million by 2100, while China’s will decline from 1.425 billion to 1.064 billion. The United States, thanks to migratory flows, represents an exception, with a population increase from the current 332 million to 483 million. More recent UN estimates, in the 2024 Prospect, are even more pessimistic, revising previous projections downward and confirming that the demographic decline will be deep and widespread.
Independent studies, such as the one published in The Lancet in 2020, indicate that from 2050 onwards, the only growing areas will be Africa and the Middle East. The world population will peak at nearly ten billion in 2064, then fall to 8.8 billion by 2100. The global population structure will change radically: those over 65 will make up 27% of the total, while those under 20 will represent only 19%.
Economic and social consequences
These changes will have profound consequences for the economy. The reduction in the working-age population will affect the West, China, and much of Asia, leaving only Africa as a demographically dynamic area. The impact will be visible in labor markets, economic growth, and the sustainability of social systems. Countries like Italy, Spain, and Japan are already facing a slow but unstoppable demographic “disappearance,” with inevitable consequences for productivity and social services. China may find itself in the paradox of becoming an old society before becoming a fully rich one.
The century of demographic decline
The 21st century will therefore be marked not by a demographic explosion but by a steady and unprecedented decline. Today, more than twenty countries are already losing population; by 2050 there will be over thirty-five. Some of the richest regions on the planet, from Japan to Korea, from Spain to Italy, are already recording annual population losses, and soon even large developing nations with falling fertility rates will begin to experience the same phenomenon.
Demographic contraction will also influence geopolitical balances. Countries able to maintain a stable population will gain strategic advantages, while those aging rapidly will lose economic and political weight. A possible solution is to attract young populations to compensate for the missing ones, but not all countries are capable of managing large migratory flows. Canada and the United States, historically open to immigration and able to enhance it through integration policies, represent a model of resilience.
Demographic decline, however inevitable, is neither positive nor negative in itself. It is clear, though, that it will radically change the lives of those born today: the youth of today will reach middle age in a much older world, with slower economies and societies forced to adapt to a smaller labor force and fewer resources. The effects are already visible today: stagnant economies, reduced consumption, and difficulties in financing social services in a context where the number of young people who work and consume is decreasing.
The failure of pro-natalist policies
Even interventions to support birth rates have proven insufficient. In France and other countries, family support measures have not maintained the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Immigrants, mostly from high-fertility countries, quickly adopt the demographic behaviors of their host nations, leading to a reduction in fertility. Similar situations are seen in China: abandoning the one-child policy and introducing the two-child policy did not increase the birth rate, which continues to fall. In Italy, one-third of young people aged 20 to 30 do not intend to have children, regardless of economic conditions.
In summary, Europe is facing an unprecedented demographic transformation, with an increase in the elderly population, a drastic decline in youth and workforce, and a growing role for immigration. These changes make it necessary to rethink the future, with new policies for integration and for social and economic sustainability.
The role of immigration
A continent losing population
Europe is aging and emptying out. According to an analysis by The Guardian based on Eurostat data, the population of the European Union could decrease by 6% by 2100, falling from about 447 million to 419 million people, even if current immigration levels are maintained. But without migratory flows, the situation would be dramatic: Europe’s population would fall to 295 million, losing more than one-third of its inhabitants (The Guardian).
In this scenario, immigration becomes a crucial factor for Europe’s future. It is no longer just a humanitarian or ideological issue, but one of economic and social survival. However, as The Guardian points out, simply opening the doors is not enough: regular flows, effective integration policies, and the ability to turn the arrival of new people into a shared resource are essential.
Integration and the next generation
Better inclusion is ensured for the children of immigrants, as they can grow up and be educated within the country. For this to happen, I believe it is necessary that all conflicts and doubts toward immigrants decrease over time. How can this social challenge be addressed? Perhaps a paradigm shift is needed: to understand that people seek a better future, that they did not have the chance to choose where to be born, and that, contrary to what is often said, they are willing to make sacrifices and work for a better life. Or perhaps, from a purely self-interested point of view, one must recognize that immigration is necessary for a better future, even though this alone would not ensure healthy inclusion in society. The crucial issue, in my view, will be the reason for immigrant inclusion, because they will arrive anyway: either through appropriate and measured policies, or, in the worst case, if regular flows are blocked, through irregular means.
The real challenge today is not only how many people arrive, but how they are integrated. Because even with an influx of immigrants, the decrease in workers and the aging population make it essential to increase productivity. To achieve this goal, technological evolution within businesses and a properly trained and efficient workforce are required.
